Marine Le Pen Faces Pivotal Court Verdict That Could Bar Her from 2027 Presidential Race

France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen is facing a crucial legal battle that could determine her political future. On Monday, a judge will rule on whether she should be banned from running in the 2027 presidential election due to allegations of misusing EU parliamentary funds.

Le Pen, 56, leads the National Rally (RN) and is currently the frontrunner in the 2027 race. However, a verdict from the court in Paris could derail her chances. The case, which concluded in November, involves accusations that Le Pen and 24 others improperly used European Parliament funds to pay party staff salaries.

During the trial, prosecutors called for her conviction and proposed a significant penalty: a €300,000 fine, a prison sentence, and, most notably, a five-year ban from holding public office. This recommendation surprised many, especially as the prosecution urged the court to make the ban effective immediately, preventing Le Pen from running even while appealing the verdict.

Political Implications and Scenarios

If convicted, Le Pen could face four possible outcomes. She may be acquitted, though this is considered unlikely. Alternatively, she could be found guilty but allowed to appeal without immediate ineligibility, keeping her 2027 bid alive despite legal troubles. A third scenario would see the judges enforce an automatic ban, removing her from the race. A final possibility is a reduced term of ineligibility, which might still allow her to contest the election.

Le Pen has called the case a politically motivated attack, stating, “It’s my political death they are after.” Analysts warn that barring her candidacy could spark major democratic concerns, with veteran journalist Franz-Olivier Giesbert arguing that “stopping her from running is another matter entirely” compared to a criminal conviction.

Potential Fallout

Le Pen has transformed the RN’s image over the years, making it more acceptable to mainstream voters. Polls indicate she is the strongest candidate for 2027, securing between 34-37% of the first-round vote. If she is disqualified, her party’s president, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, is the likely replacement, though he lacks her experience.

The ruling could also shake France’s political landscape. With 120 seats in the National Assembly, RN can destabilize Prime Minister François Bayrou’s minority government through a no-confidence vote. So far, Le Pen has held back, but if she views the verdict as an establishment conspiracy, she may take more aggressive steps.

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